China, tariffs and Stock Market
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The drop in the VIX from April 10 to March 12 was one of only four times the gauge has fallen from a level above 40 to below 20 in under 100 days.
The president ran for office promising to “make America great again,” and months after being sworn in, raised tariffs against America’s trading partners. President Herbert Hoover, that is — whose own “MAGA” slogan helped him win the White House in 1928.
US stocks retreated from a historic run of gains on Monday as President Trump's new tariff threat revived trade war worries in the wait for a Federal Reserve policy decision. The US dollar (DX=F) also lost ground as Wall Street gauges whether recent confidence that Trump has moved to a dealmaking phase is misplaced.
One reason investors should be cautious, outside of the unprecedented level of uncertainty created by U.S. tariff policy, is Arm's valuation. The company is valued at around $125 billion, which puts the price-to-earnings ratio based on fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS well over 200. That's optimistic, to say the least.
Risky assets were again popping on Tuesday afternoon, as markets returned to risk-on mode after April consumer-price-index report showed inflation came in cooler than expected. "The softer \[inflation\] figures are adding to confidence that the Trump policy mix won’t produce much inflation,
A tech rally helped push the Nasdaq higher, with shares of AMD and Nvidia rising more than 4%. Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) ticked higher by over 3%, and shares of Super Micro Computer
The stock market looks like it's gone from pricing in the worst-case scenario to the best-case, Goldman Sachs stock chief David Kostin said.
A risk-on/risk-off gauge tracking investor sentiment, created by analytics group Duality Research, showed risk aversion predominated during much of last month, but in May the mood has switched to being more gung ho.
Despite near-term challenges, Exxon Mobil trades at a discount to fair value. Click here to read an analysis of XOM stock now.